FINguide Buddy

  💱📈 Rupee at highs – Opportunity for Indian equities? Historically, whenever the USD/INR reached peak levels (rupee at weaker levels): ➡️ Indian equities rebounded strongly in the following years ➡️ An inverse relationship is visible at market extremes 📊 Past examples show: • Rupee peaks around 51, 69, 76, 92 were followed by higher Nifty levels • Equity markets responded positively over the medium to long term 🧠 Key takeaway: Currency weakness at extremes has historically created opportunities in Indian equities , rather than a reason to panic. 📈 Long-term investors should stay invested and focus on fundamentals, not short-term currency moves.

  Bond vs Equity – Earnings Yield Gap Update Currently: 🔹 10-Year Bond Yield: ~6.7% 🔹 Equity Earnings Yield (Nifty 50): ~5.0% 📉 The gap between bond yield and equity earnings yield has widened . 📌 What does this mean? • Bonds are offering relatively attractive yields • Equity markets will now need strong earnings growth to justify valuations • Market focus is shifting more towards corporate earnings performance 🧠 Key takeaway: Going forward, stock selection and earnings growth will be more important than liquidity-driven rallies.

  India Macro Snapshot – Key Takeaways 🔹 Inflation: Gradually cooling and under control 🔹 Crude Oil: Trending lower vs earlier highs – positive for India 🔹 GST Collections: Stable, reflecting steady economic activity 🔹 Forex Reserves: Comfortable around USD 690–700 bn 📉 Trade Balance: • India continues to run a trade deficit (imports > exports) • Deficit widened in some months due to higher crude prices and global volatility • Supported by strong services exports and healthy forex reserves 🏦 Banking & Growth Indicators: • Credit growth remains healthy • Deposit growth improving • Manufacturing & Services PMI above 50 , indicating economic expansion 🧠 Overall takeaway: India’s macro fundamentals remain stable and supportive for long-term growth , despite short-term global and market volatility. 📈 Staying disciplined and focused on long-term goals remains key.

Equities vs Gold & Silver – What looks attractive? The Nifty-to-Gold+Silver ratio is currently near its long-term support zone . 📌 Historically, whenever this ratio reached this level: ➡️ It often marked a shift in performance ➡️ Equities tended to outperform precious metals over the next few years 📉 Recent fall in the ratio suggests metals have outperformed equities in the short term. 📈 From a historical perspective, this zone has favoured equity allocation going forward. 🧠 Key takeaway: Instead of chasing recent winners, maintaining proper asset allocation and long-term discipline is important.

  🌍 Global Equity Markets – Quick Snapshot 📌 Valuations: • Developed markets like USA & Japan are trading above their long-term averages • Many emerging markets are relatively more reasonably valued 📈 Performance trend: • Japan, Korea & Brazil have delivered strong returns over the last 6–12 months • India has seen muted returns in the short term , but remains structurally strong • Select emerging markets continue to outperform in recent months 🧠 Key takeaway: Global markets are moving at different speeds. Diversification across regions and staying invested with a long-term view remains important. 📊 Short-term numbers change, but discipline & asset allocation matter most .